Saturday, February 18, 2006

Rasmussen: DeWine Leads Brown 46%-37%

According to a recent poll published by Rasmussen Reports, incumbent Sen. Mike DeWine (R) leads his likely Democratic challenger Rep. Sherrod Brown, 46%-37%. The poll was taken on February 16th of 500 'likely' Ohio voters, the MOE is +/- 4.5%. The trend here is very encouraging for DeWine. Just last month, Rasmussen had DeWine over Brown by just 5 points, 45%-40%. He has finally been able to get out of the margin of error of 4.5% and statistically leads Brown. But DeWine is still under the 50% benchmark for incumbents. Political conventional wisdom usually dictates that any incumbent still polling under 50% is technically vulnerable, at least on paper. But the circumstances of this Senate race have changed drastically since Hackett's departure and bitter remarks about the Ohio Democrats, DSCC, and Charles Schumer (see postings below). Hacket's remarks about the strongarm tactics against his Senate campaign has apparently left a bitter taste in the mouths of at least some Ohio Democrats. From the Rasmussen poll: "Overall, 29% of the state's voters agree with Hackett and say he was betrayed by party leaders. Fifteen percent (15%) say he was not, but a majority of voters (55%) have no opinion on the topic. Among Democrats, 31% say he was betrayed and 24% say he was not." This Democratic bitterness about Hackett could match hardline (social) conservatives' concern for DeWine's more moderate stances, meaning neither Senate candidate would have the full backing of his respective parties' factions. The softing of Brown's support from fellow Democrats is evident in Rasmussen's internal numbers: "Brown's support among Democrats has fallen from 77% in January to 69% this month." Brown's softening of Democratic support coincides with growing pessimism of Brown's chances of taking this Senate from DeWine. From the poll, "Fifty-four percent (54%) of Ohio voters believe DeWine will be re-elected while 29% expect Brown to defeat the incumbent. Republicans overwhelmingly expect a DeWine victory while Democrats are evenly divided." Hopefully this downtrodden attitude will be a self-fulfilling prophecy for Ohio Democrats come November!

2 Comments:

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3/01/2007  
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4/24/2007  

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