Charlie Wilson's Dilemma in OH-06: He's Off the Ballot

This Wednesday at approximately 4pm the Columbiana County Board of Elections confirmed that Democratic Congressional candidate in OH-06 and current State Senator Charlie Wilson (D-Bridgeport) did reach the 50 required (and valid) signatures to be placed on the ballot. This was verified despite insistence from (non?)candidate Wilson earlier in the week that he believed his campaign had the 50 required signatures, even with all the evidence pointing to the contrary. As it turned out, Wilson only had 46 valid signatures actually from the OH-06. He originally submitted 96 but 5o of those signatures were obtained from outside the OH-06. Despite the State Senator's apparent difficulty in obtaining 50 signatures from within OH-06, two obscure and unknown Democratic candidates were able to reach the 50 John Hancock's threshold rather easily. Former Michigan Republican Congressional candidate Bob Carr and John Luchanstay will be on the Democratic Primary ballot for OH-06 on May 2nd but Charlie Wilson won't be.

This complicates Wilson's two remaining options from here on out. Wilson can either 1.) run as a write-in candidate in OH-06 Democratic primary and if he should beat Carr and Luchanstay, then Wilson would appear as the Democratic candidate in the general election or 2.) he could run as an independent candidate in the general election. The second option would be disastrous and practically hand the election to likely GOP candidate St. Rep. Chuck Blasdel (R-East Liverpool). Wilson would be splitting up Democrat votes with the Democratic candidate on the ballot (either Carr or Luchanstay), while Blasdel would coast to victory with soild GOP support. The first option is the most appealing at this point but by no means failsafe. Victorious write-in campaigns are the exception, not the norm, in politics. Democrats seem to have an odd overconfidence in that Wilson's failure to initially get on the primary ballot is no big deal. They seem to think DCCC Chairman and Rep. Rahm Emmanuel (D-IL) will come to the rescue and send in footsoldiers to obtain the 1,886 signatures Wilson will need to qualify as a write-in candidate in the Democratic primary. The manpower, resources, and money necessary to carry out this signature drive shouldn't be downplayed, not to mention that merely qualifying Wilson as a write-in candidate doesn't secure victory. Certainly there are historical examples of successful Congressional write-in campaigns (Strom Thurmond, Joe Skeen, etc., etc.) but OH-06 is a special circumstance. First the physical boundaries are such that Wilson is not a political powerhouse or even well known (particularly in conties bordering the Ohio River in southern Ohio). Managing a successful write-in campaign (which are at least Demcrat-leaning) will not be easy.

The political ramifications of this screw-up are becoming abundantly clear in the aftermath of Wilson being thrown off the ballot. CQPolitics now lists the Congressional race as a true toss-up thanks to Wilson's blunder and fellow Democrats are starting to wonder out loud if Wilson's staff (consisting at the top of a campaign manager that also happens to be his son) is second rate. The fact that the Wilson campaign could not even determine where OH-06 began and ended is more than a simple screw-up, it suggests a candidate who thinks he's entitled to the seat without an election.

Corruption also looms over the entire event. Columbiana County Board of Elections Chairman John Payne apparently contacted the Wilson campaign to alert them ahead of time that their were problems with their filing petitions. Wilson wanted to get the petitions back to add more signatures and qualify for the primary ballot, but Wilson was informed that the deadline had passed and doing so would violate Ohio election laws. Why would John Payne personally contact the Wilson campaign like this? Payne had made it clear to Democratic circles that he would like Wilson's state senate seat if he is elected to Congress. There's so much here for the Blasdel campaign to use that it might not be worth the Democratic effort to go ahead with the Wilson write-in campaign, but don't tell them that.