Sunday, February 10, 2008

Breakdown Hillary vs. Obama by Ohio Congressional Districts

OH-01: Obama. Cincinnati gives Obama a nice urban base of support of African American and urban liberals (plus UC and Xavier campuses).

OH-02: Hillary. This is largely a wealthy, suburban district that is also heavily Republican (or should be, you wouldn't know it with Jean Schmidt's recent performances there). Obama's performance in that straw poll not withstanding, this district holds that kind of demographic Hillary needs to carry.

OH-03: Obama, though it will be close. Dayton and Middletown should put Obama over the top.

OH-04: Not many Democrats in this rural district. This is an area EdwSpards would have carried had he stayed in the race. I'll guess Hillary but it's anyone's to grab.

OH-05: Same as OH-04 though it includes Bowling Green. Probably Safe for Obama.

OH-06: Combination of rural Democrats and union Democrats. Likely Hillary country.

OH-07: Sprawling district of rural area, Dayton suburbs and Columbus suburbs. I'm going to say slight Hillary here but it does include Wittenberg's campus.

OH-8: Rural district with few Democrats. Miami University's campus should give Obama the advantage.

OH-09: Toledo and the Lake Erie coast would suggest fertile ground for Hillary. This district also includes parts of Lorain with significant Hispanic populations. All good news for Hillary.

OH-10: I expect Hillary to carry OH-10 comfortably. The blue collar communities should serve her well: Parma, Brooklyn, West Park, Lakewood, etc., etc.

OH-11: Obama.

OH-12: Wealthy Columbus suburbs. Hillary with a slight edge but she needs to carry these areas to win.

OH-13: Interesting district. Obama will carry Akron proper and Hillary probably everything else. It's probably hers.

Oh-14: The wealthy snowbelt. Hillary.

OH-15: Obama. Downtown Columbus + OSU = Obama

OH-16: Hillary.

OH-17: Hillary. Obama will carry KSU and some precincts in Youngstown.

OH-18: Rural district, almost entirely. Hillary.

Statewide: 51%-47% Hillary. Everything can change from here on out, especially if Obama builds up enough momentum. But that's where I see it standing right now.


Post a Comment

<< Home