Saturday, February 23, 2008

Ohio Republicans Are Rooting For Hillary

No real surprise here. Ohio GOP Deputy Chairman Kevin DeWine and others are openly admitting that they are rooting for Hillary Clinton in March 4's Democratic Presidential primary because they believe she can unite the Republicans like no other opponent and be ultimately defeated in the general election due to her high negative ratings. As evidenced by the recent USA Today numbers that gave her a negative rating of 49%.

I'm not so sure this conventional wisdom is completely accurate. Obama appears to be a big gamble for Democrats. There is real hesitation among Hispanics toward Obama's candidacy and Obama is polling weakly in some key states, including Ohio. Here in the Buckeye State, SurveyUSA has Clinton leading McCain by 10 points, 52%-42%, while Obama only has a three-point advantage over McCain, 47%-44%. Obama fares far worse against McCain in places like Florida and mind-bogglingly, Obama is only two points ahead of McCain in....drum roll...Massachusetts!

Obama will either win big or lose in a landslide. It seems unlikely he can win in a fairly close election scenario. While Obama and his rhetoric are playing well among independents for now, the real test will come in the fall. Obama has been mediocre thus far in his debate performances against Hillary. Not that McCain is a collegiate debater with a cabinet full of trophies, but he is a better candidate than Hillary ever will be. And I still maintain Obama's numbers are bound to drop. The current love affair the media has with Obama now will end once Hillary is out of the picture for good.

So, Ohio Republicans may be supporting Hillary in the hopes of drawing the weaker candidate but be careful what you wish for. Hillary is still polling well among seniors (the most reliable voting bloc) and union voters. As Pat Buchanan has pointed out more than once, those are exactly the kind of usual Democratic voters McCain can peel away to win The White House--especially in a state with a demographic makeup like Ohio.

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OpenID politicaloutcast said...

The GOP better get its act together and not worry about wanting Hillary to win. There are still hurdles for us to climb in order to win so even though both Shrillary and Obama suck, it's gonna be a fight.

Blogger Brian G. said...

Agreed wholeheartedly. McCain is the best possible candidate but that doesn't even give the Republicans an advantage at this point


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