Michelle Obama Delivers Another Gaffe

My God, when will the Obama campaign finally realize that they need to stuff Michelle Obama's mouth with a sock. Apparently at a campaign stop, she described us (the America n people) as downright mean. She also described us as a nation of nation of cynics, sloths, and complacents." Now that's certainly going to bring us together!

Hillary's last stand in Texas and Ohio last night not withstanding, it still appears that Obama will win the Democratic nomination. With the amount of miscues committed by Michelle Obama already in this campaign, she's gearing up to be a bigger liability than Teresa Heinz Kerry was to John Kerry!

A Closer Look at Obama's Record in Illinois

This article, by a journalist named Todd Spivak who worked in Barack Obama's State Senate district when he was an unknown entity, has shed some valuable light on the man who is on the verge of becoming the Democratic Presidential contender.

The picture he paints is very underwhelming, especially when contrasted with the media darling Obama has become today. Obama worked his way up the chain of command not through hard work and community activism, like his recent television campaign commercials would have you believe but through hiring a Harvard Law buddy to comb over Illinois election laws and find loopholes to ensure he was the only candidate on the ballot and all the other Democrats (including the longtime incumbent) were kicked off the ballot.

The story also shows an incredible lack of leadership on Obama's part. He refused to get involved in community redevelopment and eminent domain abuse by the city of Chicago within his own district.

Crime, quality of life? Obama usually silent.

Obama's main objective appeared to be a constant rise in position and prestige. He ran for U.S. Congress against incumbent Congressman Bobby Rush but was portrayed as an Ivy League elitist who was out of touch with rank and file South Side Chicagoans.

And all the bills and passed legislation that Obama constantly rattles off as proof that he is experienced at passing laws and working across the aisle? They were bills originally authored by various other members of the Illinois State Senate. Obama's name was attached to the legislation by Illinois Senate President Emil Jones, Jr. Obama's role in actually crafting the legislation and negotiating the eventual passage is cast in an uncertain light here.

Emil Jones is responsible for Barack Obama's rapid rise in national politics. Much more so than Obama is responsible for it himself.

And Obama's squeaky-clean image is tainted by his endorsement of Chicago Alderman Dorothy Tillman who once brandished a gun and was involved in serious corruption allegations months before Obama's endorsement came.

The bottom line here is evident. Obama wasn't the courageous community activist who rejected a lucrative career on Wall Street. He was an ambitious, well-educated young man who was intent on advancing into national politics. Leadership, clean government, etc. all came second to ambition.

That's not to demonize Obama. McCain and Hillary are both guilty of that same offense to some extent. But the problem here is that the mainstream media is allowing Obama to cast his own image of himself. When he says he will clear out the Washington lobbyists and power brokers, no one challenges him. No one, most especially Tim Russert or Brian Williams, are willing to do the research and visit Chicago's South Side.

They appear unwilling to accept the fact that the Obama hype isn't what it's all cracked up to be.

Obama Dressed Up as a Somali

The Drudge Report first picked up on a photo of Sen. Barack Obama dressing up as a Somali elder, which included a traditional turban. Drudge has reported that the photo has been circulated via e-mail by the Hillary campaign. If this is true, perhaps the shame should be on the Hillary campaign and not the Obama campaign for some health care mailing that is basically true (see below).

In response to the Obama's camp condemnation, the Hillary campaign engaged in its usual spin that made little sense.

Another curious photo from that trip to Africa made by Obama can be found here.

These photos are meaningless but as they say, a picture is worth a thousand words and the Hillary campaign is undoubtedly exploiting that. A nuanced explanation of wearing traditional garb when visiting a foreign country is drowned out by the fact that Obama is wearing a turban. Think Michael Dukakis in a tank all over again.

Ohio Poll: Clinton up by 8 (or 11) Points

A recent poll released by the University of Cincinnati shows Hillary Clinton leading her rival Barack Obama by 8 points, 47%-39%. A new Quinnipiac University poll shows Hillary with an 11 point lead over Obama, 51%-40%, down from a commanding 21-point lead that she held on Feb. 14.

The moral of the story here is clear. The more time Obama has to campaign in a given state and spread his "hope" or "excitement" or whatever it is he markets, the closer he makes the race with Clinton.

The same phenomenon is also being witnessed in Texas. The state was long held to be a Hillary stronghold but recent polls directly contradict that. One poll even has Obama with a commanding lead over Hillary, 57%-40%. If that poll is even half-true, Hillary is obviously in big trouble. She must win both states, Ohio and Texas, on March 4th. Anything less than commanding wins there will damage her campaign beyond repair. Remember, Obama has been winning all the states after Super Tuesday with decisive double digit margins of victory. If Hillary can't pull off that feat in Ohio and Texas, she'll be done in the delegate count. Not even the superdelegates will save her then.

And it doesn't look like double digits in either state will happen for Hillary. Hopefully the Democratic campaign wages on far beyond March 4th because that only helps Republicans in the end but everyone has to start wondering how much longer Hillary can last without many recent victories in her column.

McCain Campaigning in Cleveland Today

Sen. John McCain, the Republican Presidential frontrunner, will be campaigning in the Cleveland area today. As I type this, he is in Rocky River at the Dom Hurley Civic Center on Hilliard Road. Later this afternoon at 4:45 PM, McCain will be at Colonial Eatery in Parma on Rodge Road. Tomorrow McCain will be campaigning in the Cincinnati area.

Ohio Republicans Are Rooting For Hillary

No real surprise here. Ohio GOP Deputy Chairman Kevin DeWine and others are openly admitting that they are rooting for Hillary Clinton in March 4's Democratic Presidential primary because they believe she can unite the Republicans like no other opponent and be ultimately defeated in the general election due to her high negative ratings. As evidenced by the recent USA Today numbers that gave her a negative rating of 49%.

I'm not so sure this conventional wisdom is completely accurate. Obama appears to be a big gamble for Democrats. There is real hesitation among Hispanics toward Obama's candidacy and Obama is polling weakly in some key states, including Ohio. Here in the Buckeye State, SurveyUSA has Clinton leading McCain by 10 points, 52%-42%, while Obama only has a three-point advantage over McCain, 47%-44%. Obama fares far worse against McCain in places like Florida and mind-bogglingly, Obama is only two points ahead of McCain in....drum roll...Massachusetts!

Obama will either win big or lose in a landslide. It seems unlikely he can win in a fairly close election scenario. While Obama and his rhetoric are playing well among independents for now, the real test will come in the fall. Obama has been mediocre thus far in his debate performances against Hillary. Not that McCain is a collegiate debater with a cabinet full of trophies, but he is a better candidate than Hillary ever will be. And I still maintain Obama's numbers are bound to drop. The current love affair the media has with Obama now will end once Hillary is out of the picture for good.

So, Ohio Republicans may be supporting Hillary in the hopes of drawing the weaker candidate but be careful what you wish for. Hillary is still polling well among seniors (the most reliable voting bloc) and union voters. As Pat Buchanan has pointed out more than once, those are exactly the kind of usual Democratic voters McCain can peel away to win The White House--especially in a state with a demographic makeup like Ohio.

Quinnipiac: Clinton Maintains Healthy Lead in Ohio

Quinnipiac University has released its latest round of polling in the wake of Hillary's big losses in the Potomac states this past Tuesday. And despite Hillary's recent campaign woes, she is maintaining a healthy lead in Ohio and Pennsylvania.
Among Ohio Democrats, women back Clinton,
56 percent to 30 percent for Obama, while men
back Clinton 52 percent to 42 percent, the poll found.

The Quinnipiac poll is basically in line with the previous SurveyUSA poll (see below). Quinnipiac has Hillary with a 56%-30% edge over Obama.

The pollster pointed out that Ohio possesses the perfect demographic for Hillary Clinton: blue collar Democrats with no college education.

In an Ohio general election matchup with the presumed Republican nominee Senator John McCain, McCain has a very slight lead against Clinton, 44%-43% and McCain had a bigger lead against Obama, 44%-40%. Both set of numbers are good news for McCain. His ability to win The White House is obviously strengthened if he manages to keep Ohio in the Republican column. Plus, the Quinnipiac poll also found that McCain is polling very well in neighboring Pennsylvania. McCain only trails Obama by one point in PA, 42%-41%, but does trail Hillary by a 6-point margin, 46%-40%.

This set of polls from battleground states like OH and PA should serve as a wake up call for Democrats. While Obama may be leading McCain in national polls by a slightly better margin than Hillary, he's performing considerably worse against McCain in these key states. It should be warning sign for Democrats everywhere, but I hope not.

Breakdown of GOP Presidential Race in Ohio by Congressional seat

By popular request, I've also done a breakdown of the Republican Presidential primary in Ohio by Congressional district. Despite Huckabee's latest "surge," if it can be qualified as that, this race is far less close (and consequently less exciting) than its Democratic counterpart. Nevertheless, there are some Congressional seats and pockets of rural Ohio where Huckabee could perform well.


OH-01: McCain.Whatever amount of urban area Republicans exist in Cincinnati will support McCain in large numbers. The Butler County portion of this district could tilt toward Huckabee, however.

OH-02: McCain. Although a safe GOP district (usually), the makeup here is primarily suburban Republicans and I just don't see them going toward Huckabee. On Super Tuesday, many of these suburban Republicans supported Romney because of his economic views. I suspect them to now go to McCain by default.

OH-03: McCain yet again. Dayton should be kind to McCain, especially when considering Wright-Patterson Air Force Base is located there. Military servicemen and women have been behind McCain from the beginning.

OH-04: Finally we get to a district Huckabee has a realistic chance of winning. I'll say Huckabee wins here by a few points.

OH-05: Combination of rural counties plus Toledo suburbs (Wood County). In recent special election here, attacking the Democrat on illegal immigration and abortion played well. Social conservatives will come out for Huckabee here but I think the more populous counties go to McCain. I say McCain here by about 5 points.

OH-06: Rural Republicans. This is the perfect demographic for Huckabee. I say Huckabee here by a healthy amount.

OH-07: More suburbs of Dayton and Columbus spells good news for McCain. McCain will win here by a healthy margin with strong suburban support.

OH-8: Another rural district. It would seem like a good pickup opportunity for Huckabee but I'm not so sure. Urban sprawl has brought some of the Cincinnati exurbs into Butler County and likewise for Dayton exurbs. I say McCain here, but barely.

OH-09: This one is hard to predict. It includes Toledo (good for McCain) but also some rural areas along Lake Erie. With McCain as the obvious frontrunner, I say he wins. Ohio Republicans like to support the winner.

OH-10: McCain and it won't even be close. Bedroom communities won't identify with a preacher from Arkansas.

OH-11: McCain by a lot, again. These safe Democratic districts all go for McCain. Remember Super Tuesday and the California primary. One reason McCain beat Romney by so much in California was because he carried all the safe Democratic districts in a rout (think LA, SF Bay). The same will hold true in Ohio and elsewhere around the country.

OH-12: Another suburban district for McCain.

OH-13: McCain.

Oh-14: McCain. Wealthy suburbs of Chardon, Pepper Pike, Gates Mills, Kirtland Hills, etc. will be supporting the establishment candidate in landslide.

OH-15: McCain, Huckabee won't play well in inner city Columbus or on OSU's campus.

OH-16: McCain, but not by much. He'll rack up big margins in places like Canton, Massillon, and Medina. That's enough to win the whole seat.

OH-17: McCain. Huckabee won't break 30% here.

OH-18: This could be Huckabee's strongest showing in Ohio. Rural counties will like Huckabee. I say he could conceivably win here by 10 points.

Statewide: 60%-35% McCain. A clear win for McCain but maybe not as impressive as some would imagine. Doesn't matter, he's got a clear path to the nomination. Huckabee should have dropped out before Romney. Then again, I would have preferred he never ran in the first place.

Plain Dealer Endorses McCain, Obama

No big surprise here. Practically every major U.S. newspaper has endorsed John McCain and Barack Obama.

The big question is of these major newspaper endorsements will translate into increased support. The endorsement of every relevant newspaper in California certainly didn't help Obama secure that state in his column. Media endorsements provide good bragging rights against your opponent but that's about it. Voters are unlikely to base their individual vote on how many newspaper endorsements some candidate was able to rack up in a given state.

As for the Ohio Presidential primary itself, Hillary appears to still have the edge. Between now and March 4, however, Obama has the clear advantage. This Tuesday, Feb. 12, the Potomac Primary (Maryland, DC, Virginia) will hold their primaries and Obama is favored to sweep all three states. So, the momentum could clearly shift between now and March 4. Hillary's strategy should be to build up Texas and Ohio as firewall states to halt any momentum Obama has racked up sweeping the primaries/caucuses last night (Saturday, Feb. 9) and his likely sweep this Tuesday. If Hillary can win the big states of Texas and Ohio, she's back in the thick of it. If not, Obama has likely won the nomination.

As for the varying calculations of the delegate count, superdelegates (Congressmen, Governors, big city Mayors, union leaders, etc.) should not be counted in at this point. Whomever wins the most votes and goes into the Democratic convention with the most votes and/or delegates will secure the nomination. Superdelegates are purely political creatures who fully realize that nominating a candidate who received less votes than another is tantamount to political suicide. Plus, the party that felt cheated out of the 2000 Presidential election in Florida is unlikely to give their nomination away to someone who was beaten at the polls.