Monday, February 11, 2008

Breakdown of GOP Presidential Race in Ohio by Congressional seat

By popular request, I've also done a breakdown of the Republican Presidential primary in Ohio by Congressional district. Despite Huckabee's latest "surge," if it can be qualified as that, this race is far less close (and consequently less exciting) than its Democratic counterpart. Nevertheless, there are some Congressional seats and pockets of rural Ohio where Huckabee could perform well.

OH-01: McCain.Whatever amount of urban area Republicans exist in Cincinnati will support McCain in large numbers. The Butler County portion of this district could tilt toward Huckabee, however.

OH-02: McCain. Although a safe GOP district (usually), the makeup here is primarily suburban Republicans and I just don't see them going toward Huckabee. On Super Tuesday, many of these suburban Republicans supported Romney because of his economic views. I suspect them to now go to McCain by default.

OH-03: McCain yet again. Dayton should be kind to McCain, especially when considering Wright-Patterson Air Force Base is located there. Military servicemen and women have been behind McCain from the beginning.

OH-04: Finally we get to a district Huckabee has a realistic chance of winning. I'll say Huckabee wins here by a few points.

OH-05: Combination of rural counties plus Toledo suburbs (Wood County). In recent special election here, attacking the Democrat on illegal immigration and abortion played well. Social conservatives will come out for Huckabee here but I think the more populous counties go to McCain. I say McCain here by about 5 points.

OH-06: Rural Republicans. This is the perfect demographic for Huckabee. I say Huckabee here by a healthy amount.

OH-07: More suburbs of Dayton and Columbus spells good news for McCain. McCain will win here by a healthy margin with strong suburban support.

OH-8: Another rural district. It would seem like a good pickup opportunity for Huckabee but I'm not so sure. Urban sprawl has brought some of the Cincinnati exurbs into Butler County and likewise for Dayton exurbs. I say McCain here, but barely.

OH-09: This one is hard to predict. It includes Toledo (good for McCain) but also some rural areas along Lake Erie. With McCain as the obvious frontrunner, I say he wins. Ohio Republicans like to support the winner.

OH-10: McCain and it won't even be close. Bedroom communities won't identify with a preacher from Arkansas.

OH-11: McCain by a lot, again. These safe Democratic districts all go for McCain. Remember Super Tuesday and the California primary. One reason McCain beat Romney by so much in California was because he carried all the safe Democratic districts in a rout (think LA, SF Bay). The same will hold true in Ohio and elsewhere around the country.

OH-12: Another suburban district for McCain.

OH-13: McCain.

Oh-14: McCain. Wealthy suburbs of Chardon, Pepper Pike, Gates Mills, Kirtland Hills, etc. will be supporting the establishment candidate in landslide.

OH-15: McCain, Huckabee won't play well in inner city Columbus or on OSU's campus.

OH-16: McCain, but not by much. He'll rack up big margins in places like Canton, Massillon, and Medina. That's enough to win the whole seat.

OH-17: McCain. Huckabee won't break 30% here.

OH-18: This could be Huckabee's strongest showing in Ohio. Rural counties will like Huckabee. I say he could conceivably win here by 10 points.

Statewide: 60%-35% McCain. A clear win for McCain but maybe not as impressive as some would imagine. Doesn't matter, he's got a clear path to the nomination. Huckabee should have dropped out before Romney. Then again, I would have preferred he never ran in the first place.

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