Ohio Poll: Clinton up by 8 (or 11) Points

A recent poll released by the University of Cincinnati shows Hillary Clinton leading her rival Barack Obama by 8 points, 47%-39%. A new Quinnipiac University poll shows Hillary with an 11 point lead over Obama, 51%-40%, down from a commanding 21-point lead that she held on Feb. 14.

The moral of the story here is clear. The more time Obama has to campaign in a given state and spread his "hope" or "excitement" or whatever it is he markets, the closer he makes the race with Clinton.

The same phenomenon is also being witnessed in Texas. The state was long held to be a Hillary stronghold but recent polls directly contradict that. One poll even has Obama with a commanding lead over Hillary, 57%-40%. If that poll is even half-true, Hillary is obviously in big trouble. She must win both states, Ohio and Texas, on March 4th. Anything less than commanding wins there will damage her campaign beyond repair. Remember, Obama has been winning all the states after Super Tuesday with decisive double digit margins of victory. If Hillary can't pull off that feat in Ohio and Texas, she'll be done in the delegate count. Not even the superdelegates will save her then.

And it doesn't look like double digits in either state will happen for Hillary. Hopefully the Democratic campaign wages on far beyond March 4th because that only helps Republicans in the end but everyone has to start wondering how much longer Hillary can last without many recent victories in her column.

McCain Campaigning in Cleveland Today

Sen. John McCain, the Republican Presidential frontrunner, will be campaigning in the Cleveland area today. As I type this, he is in Rocky River at the Dom Hurley Civic Center on Hilliard Road. Later this afternoon at 4:45 PM, McCain will be at Colonial Eatery in Parma on Rodge Road. Tomorrow McCain will be campaigning in the Cincinnati area.

Marc Dann: Stopping Foreclosures and Screwing Taxpayers

This highly informative Bloomberg News piece lays out the latest legal strategy in thwarting home foreclosures. During the housing market boom circa 2003-2006, there was a hot secondary trading market for mortgage notes. Now that many homeowners have fallen behind on their monthly payments and banks are seeking to foreclose on the property, homeowners are going to the courts and claiming banks cannot foreclose on them because they do not have the proper paperwork definitively proving either: (a) that particular owns the property (and thus has the right to foreclose on it or (b) the new owner of the mortgage note is granting permission to that bank for the foreclosure to take place.

Bloomberg also mentions that our very own Attorney General, Marc Dann, has employed this legal tactic to prevent a whole host of home foreclosures in Ohio. In the article, a representative from Dann's office makes the claim that, "The best thing to do is to keep people in their homes and for everybody to take steps necessary to make that happen.''

The obvious question is: Why? As critics of the tactic and this faulty philosophy point out, homeowners who cannot obviously afford the property hurt everyone. Other residents in the neighborhood suffer from lower property values as a result of foreclosed residents hanging on to property and letting it rot or . And area taxpayers suffer because these residents usually owe thousands of dollars in back property taxes that they also cannot afford.

Indeed, it was this obvious conflict of interest that led a Hamilton County Municipal Court Judge to chastise Marc Dann for trying to prevent a foreclosure when the state of Ohio had a lien on the same property.

And again as a real estate attorney points out in the Bloomberg piece, big lenders don't print their own money. The original home mortgage was funded through someone's savings account, retirement fund, etc. That's where banks get money. The homeowner then defaulted on a loan they likely had little chance of ever repaying.

And Marc Dann wants to protect that reckless homeowner.

Quinnipiac: Clinton Maintains Healthy Lead in Ohio

Quinnipiac University has released its latest round of polling in the wake of Hillary's big losses in the Potomac states this past Tuesday. And despite Hillary's recent campaign woes, she is maintaining a healthy lead in Ohio and Pennsylvania.
Among Ohio Democrats, women back Clinton,
56 percent to 30 percent for Obama, while men
back Clinton 52 percent to 42 percent, the poll found.

The Quinnipiac poll is basically in line with the previous SurveyUSA poll (see below). Quinnipiac has Hillary with a 56%-30% edge over Obama.

The pollster pointed out that Ohio possesses the perfect demographic for Hillary Clinton: blue collar Democrats with no college education.

In an Ohio general election matchup with the presumed Republican nominee Senator John McCain, McCain has a very slight lead against Clinton, 44%-43% and McCain had a bigger lead against Obama, 44%-40%. Both set of numbers are good news for McCain. His ability to win The White House is obviously strengthened if he manages to keep Ohio in the Republican column. Plus, the Quinnipiac poll also found that McCain is polling very well in neighboring Pennsylvania. McCain only trails Obama by one point in PA, 42%-41%, but does trail Hillary by a 6-point margin, 46%-40%.

This set of polls from battleground states like OH and PA should serve as a wake up call for Democrats. While Obama may be leading McCain in national polls by a slightly better margin than Hillary, he's performing considerably worse against McCain in these key states. It should be warning sign for Democrats everywhere, but I hope not.

Breakdown of GOP Presidential Race in Ohio by Congressional seat

By popular request, I've also done a breakdown of the Republican Presidential primary in Ohio by Congressional district. Despite Huckabee's latest "surge," if it can be qualified as that, this race is far less close (and consequently less exciting) than its Democratic counterpart. Nevertheless, there are some Congressional seats and pockets of rural Ohio where Huckabee could perform well.


OH-01: McCain.Whatever amount of urban area Republicans exist in Cincinnati will support McCain in large numbers. The Butler County portion of this district could tilt toward Huckabee, however.

OH-02: McCain. Although a safe GOP district (usually), the makeup here is primarily suburban Republicans and I just don't see them going toward Huckabee. On Super Tuesday, many of these suburban Republicans supported Romney because of his economic views. I suspect them to now go to McCain by default.

OH-03: McCain yet again. Dayton should be kind to McCain, especially when considering Wright-Patterson Air Force Base is located there. Military servicemen and women have been behind McCain from the beginning.

OH-04: Finally we get to a district Huckabee has a realistic chance of winning. I'll say Huckabee wins here by a few points.

OH-05: Combination of rural counties plus Toledo suburbs (Wood County). In recent special election here, attacking the Democrat on illegal immigration and abortion played well. Social conservatives will come out for Huckabee here but I think the more populous counties go to McCain. I say McCain here by about 5 points.

OH-06: Rural Republicans. This is the perfect demographic for Huckabee. I say Huckabee here by a healthy amount.

OH-07: More suburbs of Dayton and Columbus spells good news for McCain. McCain will win here by a healthy margin with strong suburban support.

OH-8: Another rural district. It would seem like a good pickup opportunity for Huckabee but I'm not so sure. Urban sprawl has brought some of the Cincinnati exurbs into Butler County and likewise for Dayton exurbs. I say McCain here, but barely.

OH-09: This one is hard to predict. It includes Toledo (good for McCain) but also some rural areas along Lake Erie. With McCain as the obvious frontrunner, I say he wins. Ohio Republicans like to support the winner.

OH-10: McCain and it won't even be close. Bedroom communities won't identify with a preacher from Arkansas.

OH-11: McCain by a lot, again. These safe Democratic districts all go for McCain. Remember Super Tuesday and the California primary. One reason McCain beat Romney by so much in California was because he carried all the safe Democratic districts in a rout (think LA, SF Bay). The same will hold true in Ohio and elsewhere around the country.

OH-12: Another suburban district for McCain.

OH-13: McCain.

Oh-14: McCain. Wealthy suburbs of Chardon, Pepper Pike, Gates Mills, Kirtland Hills, etc. will be supporting the establishment candidate in landslide.

OH-15: McCain, Huckabee won't play well in inner city Columbus or on OSU's campus.

OH-16: McCain, but not by much. He'll rack up big margins in places like Canton, Massillon, and Medina. That's enough to win the whole seat.

OH-17: McCain. Huckabee won't break 30% here.

OH-18: This could be Huckabee's strongest showing in Ohio. Rural counties will like Huckabee. I say he could conceivably win here by 10 points.

Statewide: 60%-35% McCain. A clear win for McCain but maybe not as impressive as some would imagine. Doesn't matter, he's got a clear path to the nomination. Huckabee should have dropped out before Romney. Then again, I would have preferred he never ran in the first place.

Plain Dealer Endorses McCain, Obama

No big surprise here. Practically every major U.S. newspaper has endorsed John McCain and Barack Obama.

The big question is of these major newspaper endorsements will translate into increased support. The endorsement of every relevant newspaper in California certainly didn't help Obama secure that state in his column. Media endorsements provide good bragging rights against your opponent but that's about it. Voters are unlikely to base their individual vote on how many newspaper endorsements some candidate was able to rack up in a given state.

As for the Ohio Presidential primary itself, Hillary appears to still have the edge. Between now and March 4, however, Obama has the clear advantage. This Tuesday, Feb. 12, the Potomac Primary (Maryland, DC, Virginia) will hold their primaries and Obama is favored to sweep all three states. So, the momentum could clearly shift between now and March 4. Hillary's strategy should be to build up Texas and Ohio as firewall states to halt any momentum Obama has racked up sweeping the primaries/caucuses last night (Saturday, Feb. 9) and his likely sweep this Tuesday. If Hillary can win the big states of Texas and Ohio, she's back in the thick of it. If not, Obama has likely won the nomination.

As for the varying calculations of the delegate count, superdelegates (Congressmen, Governors, big city Mayors, union leaders, etc.) should not be counted in at this point. Whomever wins the most votes and goes into the Democratic convention with the most votes and/or delegates will secure the nomination. Superdelegates are purely political creatures who fully realize that nominating a candidate who received less votes than another is tantamount to political suicide. Plus, the party that felt cheated out of the 2000 Presidential election in Florida is unlikely to give their nomination away to someone who was beaten at the polls.