Monday, February 25, 2008

Ohio Poll: Clinton up by 8 (or 11) Points

A recent poll released by the University of Cincinnati shows Hillary Clinton leading her rival Barack Obama by 8 points, 47%-39%. A new Quinnipiac University poll shows Hillary with an 11 point lead over Obama, 51%-40%, down from a commanding 21-point lead that she held on Feb. 14.

The moral of the story here is clear. The more time Obama has to campaign in a given state and spread his "hope" or "excitement" or whatever it is he markets, the closer he makes the race with Clinton.

The same phenomenon is also being witnessed in Texas. The state was long held to be a Hillary stronghold but recent polls directly contradict that. One poll even has Obama with a commanding lead over Hillary, 57%-40%. If that poll is even half-true, Hillary is obviously in big trouble. She must win both states, Ohio and Texas, on March 4th. Anything less than commanding wins there will damage her campaign beyond repair. Remember, Obama has been winning all the states after Super Tuesday with decisive double digit margins of victory. If Hillary can't pull off that feat in Ohio and Texas, she'll be done in the delegate count. Not even the superdelegates will save her then.

And it doesn't look like double digits in either state will happen for Hillary. Hopefully the Democratic campaign wages on far beyond March 4th because that only helps Republicans in the end but everyone has to start wondering how much longer Hillary can last without many recent victories in her column.

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